Forward of the 2024 Republican Nationwide Conference, the occasion has softened its language round abortion entry in a draft model of the occasion platform, which mirrors the stance of former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump. Many main media shops are reporting that the platform change is probably going a transfer to scale back vulnerability on the abortion problem forward of the election. The truth is, this would be the first time in 40 years that the Republican Social gathering platform doesn’t name for a federal ban on abortion.

Whereas a majority of rank-and-file Republicans to thwart a regulation that ensures a nationwide proper to abortion, many assist legal guidelines that enable entry to abortion in sure conditions. For instance, most Republican and Republican-leaning impartial girls voters say they would depart it as much as the states to determine whether or not abortion is authorized (60%) or assist a regulation that will impose a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks of being pregnant (57%). However massive majorities of Republican girls additionally assist legal guidelines that will shield entry to abortion for sufferers experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies (79%) and a federal regulation that will shield entry to abortions in instances of rape or incest in all states, even the place abortion is prohibited (69%).

Republican girls of childbearing age, ages 18 to 49, maintain barely much less conservative views on abortion coverage, with a slight majority supporting a regulation guaranteeing a nationwide proper to abortion (53%). An identical share of youthful Republican girls voters assist leaving it as much as the states to determine whether or not abortion is authorized (54%) or assist a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks (53%). With roughly half of youthful Republican girls voters supporting every of those three coverage proposals, it’s clear that there’s some uncertainty amongst these voters about how abortion entry needs to be addressed on the federal stage. Nonetheless, most youthful Republican girls assist abortion entry in some instances, significantly in instances the place sufferers are experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies.

Republican girls’s views on abortion should not monolithic. Whereas most (58%) Republican girls voters establish as “pro-life,” many (40%) say they’re extra “pro-choice” on abortion. Moreover, half of Republican girls voters say abortion needs to be authorized in all or most instances, the identical because the share who say abortion needs to be unlawful. Solely 13%, or about one in eight, Republican girls voters say abortion needs to be unlawful in all instances.

Once more, opinions fluctuate considerably by age, with related shares of Republican feminine voters of childbearing age (18 to 49) saying they establish as “pro-life” (49%) and “pro-choice” (51%), whereas two-thirds of older Republican feminine voters establish as “pro-life.” Moreover, a majority (56%) of youthful Republican feminine voters say abortion needs to be authorized in no less than most instances, together with one in 5 who say abortion needs to be authorized in all instances.

Whereas two-thirds of Republican girls voters say they belief former President Trump to do a greater job of shaping abortion coverage on this nation than President Biden, 1 / 4 of Republican girls say they belief neither presidential candidate to do a greater job on this problem. Moreover, one in three Republican girls voters (34%) say neither political occasion is best at representing girls’s pursuits. The truth is, 16% of Republican girls of childbearing age say they assume the Democratic Social gathering is best at representing girls’s pursuits than the Republican Social gathering.

As soon as a cornerstone problem for the Republican Social gathering – with most abortion-only voters earlier than the election being pro-life and Republican Dobbs determination – abortion is not a high voting problem for Republican voters since Roe vs. Wade was reversed. Fewer than one in 10 Republican girls (7%) say abortion is the highest problem for his or her vote (in comparison with 13% of Democratic girls voters), far behind points like inflation (47%) and immigration (26%). Abortion additionally ranks decrease than inflation for impartial girls (10%), together with immigration and threats to democracy as their high voting problem. The dashboard exhibits how abortion charges as a voting problem for various teams of girls voters, together with partisan, age teams, and race and ethnicity.

Whereas the problem might not encourage Republican girls to go to the polls (solely 3% of Republican girls voters say they might solely vote for a candidate who agreed with them on abortion), the occasion's general stance — which has been largely seen as anti-abortion — might disappoint some voters.

The KFF ballot of girls voters, performed earlier this summer time, discovered that many feminine voters, together with Republican girls, are sad with their selection of presidential candidates. Whereas Republican girls report being barely extra motivated to vote than Democratic girls, youthful Republican girls typically really feel the Republican Social gathering doesn’t share their views on reproductive well being points and wish abortion to be authorized typically. Whereas a lot of the early reporting on the draft modifications to the occasion platform from the Republican Nationwide Conference speculate that they had been written to appease the Republican presidential nominee, these modifications might additionally, maybe coincidentally, assist the occasion enchantment to a key voting base: Republican girls.